with Lenin Balza and Nicolas Gomez-Parra. "From Wells to Wealth? Government Transfers and Human Capital"  Journal of Development Economics 

Abstract 

To study the causal impact of oil royalties on human capital, we exploit quasi-experimental variation arising from a law in Ecuador that prescribes an algorithm to assign oil royalties to municipalities regardless of their oil-producing status. We find that royalties increase the likelihood of students completing primary and secondary education. Students reaching high school are also more likely to pass and excel on the exit exam. Furthermore, schools are more likely to remain open, increase their size, and become more road-accessible. However, the likelihood of students pursuing higher education decreases as they face steeper opportunity costs when labor demand increases.

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Keywords: Natural Resources, Oil Royalties, Human Capital, Ecuador

JEL: I25, O13, O15, Q32, Q35

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“The asymmetric impact of out-migration and return-migration on wages in the source country: Evidence from Mexico”. Journal of Human Capital 17, no. 2 (2023): 000-000.

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of return migrants from the United States to Mexico on workers’ wages in Mexico and contrasts it with the effect of out-migration trends. The empirical estimation reveals that return migrants and nonmigrant workers are imperfect substitutes. The mechanism driving imperfect substitution is consistent with migrants’ foreign acquisition of human capital that is valued in the home-country labor market. The results suggest that occupation-specific experience in the United States drives imperfect substitution. Imperfect substitution generates distributional and sign asymmetries on the impact of wages for out-migrant- and return-migrant-induced labor supply shocks of the same magnitude.

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Keywords: Return migration, U.S.-Mexico migration, Impact of migration, Wages, Human Capital

JEL: O15, J61, J31, J11, F2

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“Non-classical Measurement Error with False Positives and Negatives”. Applied Economics Letter 28, no. 18 (2021): 1620-1625.

Abstract

Non-classical measurement error caused by false positives and false negatives produces biased and inconsistent estimates in a regression. This is the case whether the mismeasured variable is a dependent or an explanatory variable, and having an IV does not always work. To tackle these limitations, this paper shows that proper adjustment of the mismeasured variable of interest produces consistent estimates. The paper also discusses alternatives when the key inputs to adjust the mismeasured variable are not known.
Keywords: Non-classical measurement error, false positives, false negatives
JEL codes: C80, C01, C40, C49

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“The effects of border enforcement and expected economic gains: Mexico-U.S. migration during and after the Great Recession” 

Abstract

Tougher border enforcement is expected to have a negative effect on undocumented migration, but quantifying its impact has been an eluding issue. This paper studies the effect of border enforcement on the decision to migrate from Mexico to the U.S. Using data that connect migration flows from states in Mexico with states in the U.S., this paper sheds light on 1) the mechanics of border enforcement as a deterrent to unauthorized migration, and 2) the linkages between labor markets of these countries. It derives an empirical specification from a random utility model to explain recent patterns in Mexico-U.S. migration and finds that instead of stricter border enforcement, lackluster expected economic gains are the major disincentive to migration. Point estimates imply an elasticity of migration with respect to economic gains of 1.5, and an elasticity with respect to border enforcement of -0.27.

JEL: O15, J61, J68, R23, F22

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“The migrant border crisis: Evidence from the Northern Triangle and Mexico”  (Under Review)    

Abstract

Since 2009 there has been a significant increase in the number of Unaccompanied Child Migrants, Family Units, and Adults from the Northern Triangle arriving at the Mexico-U.S. borders. Migration flows have shifted, and the Northern Triangle is becoming a more important source of migrants to the U.S. This has happened as violence has surged, and displaced criminal organizations based in Mexico have moved to the Northern Triangle. I use Customs and Border Protection administrative data to identify the causes behind the U.S. migrant border crisis. The results show that violence and previous arrivals are vital drivers. The effects of networks are positive and relatively important. Networks effects are very similar across countries and between adults and children, suggesting that network effects are not different from other migration episodes. In contrast, violence has heterogeneous effects across populations and countries, with children more responsive to violence. Results in this paper can reconcile the puzzle between declining overall homicide rates and rising apprehensions at the Mexico-U.S. border.

Keywords: Border Crisis, Child Migration, Northern Triangle, Homicide Violence

JEL: O15, J61, F22

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“Distant Economic Shocks, Migrants' Networks, Jobs and Violence” 

Abstract

This paper documents a strong negative effect of formal employment on homicide violence and sheds light on the impact of distant economic shocks on the surge of violence in Mexico. To explore the mechanism and guide the empirical strategy, this paper develops a stylized spatial equilibrium model with multiple sectors and regions that can sustain nominal wage differences across and within regions. Distant economic shocks are channeled through migrants’ networks to local labor markets. Positive shocks increase employment in the formal sector, decrease informality and the probability that a Drug Trade Organization (DTO)
initiates operations in a given municipality. In contrast, negative shocks decrease employment in the formal sector and expand the informal sector. The informal sector serves as a buffer during downturns that reduces the number of workers joining illicit labor markets. Results suggest that in the absence of migration, violence levels would be higher.

Keywords: Violent crime, Formal and informal labor markets, Drug trade organizations

JEL: J40, R23, K42, O15, N36

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with Miguel Sangurima . “The effect of south-south migration on academic achievement” (Under Review)

Abstract 

Using administrative data on every school in Ecuador and \textit{Ser Bachiller}, a multipurpose high stakes standardized test required to graduate from high school and access higher education, we study the impact of the Venezuelan migration crisis on education in Ecuador. Given immigrants' large numbers and characteristics, the enrollment patterns found in high school and grades 1-9 are consistent with the dual impact of the immigration shock on the educational system and the labor market. As a consequence of the shock, we find that most shock-induced students in grades 1-9 are immigrants. In contrast, in high school, most shock-induced students are natives. We estimate negative effects of about 2.5pp in high school students' test scores, but no impact on the probability of passing the test, meaning more natives are graduating high school. In addition, five Ecuadorians go back to school for every immigrant in high school. The back-to-school effect is mainly driven by the impact of immigration on the labor market.

Keywords: Impact of Immigration, Human Capital, Ecuador, Venezuela, Latin America

JEL: J24, J61, H75, O15

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Research in progress

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with  Joyce J. Chen (OSU). “Sequential Migration: Unaccompanied Children, Separated Families, and Crime in the Northern Triangle”

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with Jorge Avila-Santamaria,  Cristhian Ortiz, and Pedro  Romero (USFQ). “The Ripple Effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy: Food Prices and the Arab Spring”

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